Novo Nordisk A.S. (Novo Nordisk) reported modest y-o-y revenue growth in 4Q 09, in line with our expectations. Performance at operating level was in line with our expectation while net level performance fell short of our expectations for 4Q 09. Going forward, we expect new products such as Victoza to drive top-line growth. However, we believe the common stock is fairly priced at current levels....

Novo Nordisk's business in the US, which contributed 51% share of growth to the company's Diabetes Care revenues was the largest contributor followed by International operations (29% of revenues) and Europe (19% of revenues). The US business is expected to continue growing, propelled by an increase in modern insulin, further supported by new product launches and deeper penetration of products such as Levemir and NovoLog over the next 2 years....

Diabetes affected approximately 246 mn people worldwide in FY 2007 and the number of diabetic patients is expected to increase to 380 mn by 2025 (Source: International Diabetic Federation). Approximately 23.6 million diabetic patients reside in the US with 40.9 mn residing in India. The Global Diabetes drug treatment market was valued at over $21 bn in 2006 and is expected to grow to US$31.4 bn over the next…